The "Fear" Factor: Existential Threats to the Islamic Republic Despite public displays of defiance, internal reports and diplomatic shifts suggest three primary fears currently driving the Iranian high command: • The "Kosovo Model" of Degradation: Tehran fears the U.S. and Israel are adopting a "scorched-earth" air campaign—similar to the 1999 Kosovo War—targeting civilian infrastructure, power stations, and desalination plants to incite domestic collapse. • Decapitation and Leadership Instability: Following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2026, the regime is in a fragile state of leadership transition under Mojtaba Khamenei. The fear is that continued "leadership-targeting" strikes will prevent the new government from consolidating power. • Domestic Unrest: Severe economic deterioration, exacerbated by the naval blockade and inflation, has led to a "protest-ready" population. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW)reports that the regime's "negative objective" is now simply preventing a popular revolt triggered by hunger and infrastructure failure. The "Truth": Iran’s Core National Interests To secure its future, Iran is pursuing "positive" strategic goals that it views as non-negotiable for its sovereignty: 1. Hormuz Sovereignty: Iran’s principal objective is to gain international recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Rather than just blocking it, Tehran seeks to "manage" maritime traffic permanently, potentially barring all foreign military vessels from the waterway. 2. Ceasefire on All Fronts: For Iran, any deal with the U.S. must include a full cessation of Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Tehran views its regional "Axis of Resistance" as its outer wall of defense; allowing its allies to be dismantled while signing a bilateral peace would leave the Iranian heartland exposed. 3. Preservation of Deterrence: Having seen its traditional missile and nuclear sites degraded, Iran is leaning into asymmetric leverage. This includes the threat to inflict further damage on the global economy through energy price spikes (targeting $100+ per barrel) as a way to force U.S. concessions.